- Design
- Bayesian network and dose-response meta-analysis of randomised trials
- Population
- 124 trials, 18,429 adults aged 40 and over
- Primary outcome
- Bone mineral density at spine, femoral neck and total hip
- Effect
- Brisk walking or jogging total hip +0.021 g/cm² (95% CrI 0.005 to 0.038); meaningful gain at about 600 MET-min/week
A BMJ network meta-analysis pooled 124 randomised trials (18,429 adults aged 40 and over) comparing structured exercise with no exercise or with other types of exercise.
Brisk walking or jogging and combined aerobic-resistance training improved lumbar spine bone density (both about 0.013 g/cm² over control). Brisk walking or jogging was the only type to improve total hip density (0.021 g/cm²). Gains followed an inverted U with dose: a clinically meaningful change appeared at about 400 MET-minutes a week for the spine and 600 for the hip, roughly two to three hours of brisk walking. In 26 trials reporting fractures, mixed aerobic exercise (OR 0.29) and mind-body exercise such as tai chi (OR 0.58) were associated with fewer fractures, on low-certainty evidence.
This gives clinicians a specific prescription to offer: weekly brisk walking at a defined dose, with resistance work alongside, rather than general advice to keep active.
- Prescribe about two to three hours a week of brisk walking or jogging to adults over 40 concerned about bone health.
- Add resistance exercise to aerobic work where the patient can manage it.
- Suggest tai chi or similar mind-body exercise for older adults, especially those at risk of falls.
- Keep exercise alongside, not instead of, drug treatment for established osteoporosis.
Why it matters
It turns 'stay active' into a dose a patient can follow and a clinician can check.
Don't overread it
Fracture reduction rests on low-certainty evidence; the bone density changes are the firmer finding.
The statistics, in plain English
The bone density gains are small in absolute terms (around 1% to 2%), which is typical for exercise trials. The fracture results come from fewer trials and have wide credible intervals, so they suggest rather than show a reduction.
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