- Design
- Static multicohort Markov model, 5-year horizon
- Population
- 2.1 million US adults aged ≥60 in long-term care; 378,656 modelled as vaccinated
- Primary outcome
- Averted RSV cases, hospitalisations and deaths
- Effect
- 11,634 fewer hospitalisations; 1,355 fewer deaths; NNV 14 per RSV-LRTD case
A JAMDA modelling study estimated the effect of an adjuvanted RSV prefusion F3 vaccine among about 2.1 million US adults aged 60 or over living in long-term care, using real-world uptake (about 379,000 vaccinated) over five years.
The model projected 33,989 fewer RSV illnesses, including 26,302 fewer lower respiratory tract infections, 11,634 fewer hospitalisations and 1,355 fewer deaths. About 14 residents would need vaccination to prevent one lower respiratory RSV infection.
These are model outputs, not observed outcomes, and depend on assumptions about vaccine efficacy and waning in frail residents, whose response may differ from that of trial populations. Even so, care-home residents combine every major risk factor for severe RSV, and current uptake leaves most unvaccinated. In India, availability and recommendations for older-adult RSV vaccines in care settings should be checked locally.
- Long-term care residents aged 60 or over are a high-priority group for RSV vaccination where it is recommended and available.
- The model estimated about 14 vaccinations per lower respiratory RSV infection prevented.
- Review RSV vaccination status at care-home admission alongside influenza and pneumococcal vaccines.
- Model estimates depend on assumptions about vaccine efficacy in frail residents.
Why it matters
Most care-home residents remain unvaccinated against a virus that causes thousands of hospitalisations among them.
Don't overread it
These are modelled projections, not observed reductions, and rely on trial efficacy that may not hold in frail residents.
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