- Design
- Worldwide incidence analysis using GLOBOCAN 2024 and population-attributable fractions
- Population
- New cancer cases worldwide in 2024
- Primary outcome
- Cancer cases attributable to 12 IARC Group 1 infectious agents
- Effect
- 2.3 million cases (12%); H pylori 760,000; HPV 750,000; hepatitis B 360,000
Using GLOBOCAN 2024 incidence data, this analysis estimated the share of new cancers attributable to 12 infectious agents classified by IARC as Group 1 carcinogens.
About 2.3 million cases, 12% of all new cancers, were attributable to infection. Helicobacter pylori accounted for 760,000 and HPV for 750,000, followed by hepatitis B (360,000), Epstein-Barr virus (260,000) and hepatitis C (160,000). Eastern Asia carried 42% of the total. Age-standardised rates were above the global average in sub-Saharan Africa, central and eastern Europe and southeastern Asia.
These are the most preventable cancers there are. For India, the relevant levers are familiar and under-used: HPV vaccination, cervical screening, hepatitis B vaccination and treatment, hepatitis C cure, and testing and treating H pylori where gastric cancer risk is high. Oncologists see the end of these pathways, but are well placed to push for the start.
- Recommend HPV vaccination for eligible girls and young women, and cervical screening for women in the screening age range.
- Test for hepatitis B and C before chemotherapy and immunosuppression, and refer for treatment.
- Consider H pylori testing and eradication in first-degree relatives of patients with gastric cancer.
- Ask about HIV status in patients with cancers linked to it, such as Kaposi sarcoma and some lymphomas.
Why it matters
One in eight cancers has a preventable infectious cause, and the tools to act on most of them already exist.
Don't overread it
Attributable fractions are modelled estimates from incidence and prevalence data, not counts of individual cases.
The statistics, in plain English
A population-attributable fraction estimates how many cases would not occur if the infection were removed, assuming the link is causal. It depends on how common the infection is and how strongly it raises risk, so it is an estimate rather than a measurement.
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