Revision hip and knee arthroplasty projected to rise by about a third by 2060

Design

Registry-based projection model (Poisson, with sensitivity analyses)

Population

17 countries with national arthroplasty registries

Primary outcome

Annual revision hip and knee volumes to 2060

Effect

Revision hip +31%, revision knee +41% from 2024 to 2060 (primary model)

This study modelled revision hip and knee arthroplasty volumes in 17 countries with national registries, using a uniform method and UN population projections. It was published in September.

In 2024 the modelled total was about 186,000 revision hips and 190,000 revision knees. By 2060 the primary model projects about 243,000 and 267,000, rises of 31% and 41%. The United States and China drive most of the growth; Germany, the UK and Sweden level off, and Japan declines. Alternative models spanned about 461,000 to 511,000 combined procedures in 2060.

These are model-based projections, not observations, and they depend on assumptions about trends and population change.

For services, the message is planning: revision capacity, training and infection prevention will need to grow, particularly in health systems still expanding primary arthroplasty.

• Revision knees are projected to grow faster than revision hips (41% vs 31%).
• Growth is concentrated in countries where primary arthroplasty is still expanding.
• Mature registries in Europe show volumes levelling off.
• Infection prevention in primaries is the main lever on future revision demand.
• Projections vary by model; treat the numbers as a range, not a forecast.

Why it matters

Revision work grows from today's primaries, so the infection and implant choices made now set future workload.

Don't overread it

These are model-based estimates, not observed counts.

The statistics, in plain English

These are projections from fitted trends. The spread between models (about 461,000 to 511,000 procedures) shows how much the result depends on assumptions.

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