Revision hip and knee arthroplasty volume projected to rise about 36% by 2060

Design

Registry-based projection using log-linear Poisson models with sensitivity analyses

Population

Revision hip and knee arthroplasty counts from 17 registry-equipped countries

Primary outcome

Projected annual revision volumes to 2060

Effect

Revision hip 243,404 (+31%) and revision knee 267,456 (+41%) by 2060 versus 2024

Using registry data from 17 countries and a uniform modelling method, the authors estimated about 185,921 revision hip and 189,689 revision knee arthroplasties in 2024. Their primary model projected 243,404 revision hips and 267,456 revision knees by 2060, increases of 31% and 41%.

Trajectories differed by country. The United States and China contributed most of the absolute growth, Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden approached plateaus, and Japan was projected to decline. Alternative models gave combined 2060 volumes from about 461,000 to about 511,000 procedures.

This is a model built on registry trends and population forecasts, and it carries all the uncertainty of extrapolation to 2060. India is not among the countries named in the abstract, so these figures say nothing directly about Indian volumes. The authors point to implications for revision fellowship training, infection prevention and registry infrastructure.

• Revision hip volume projected up 31% and revision knee 41% by 2060 in the primary model.
• The United States and China drive most absolute growth.
• Alternative models gave lower totals, about 461,000 versus 511,000 procedures.
• The abstract does not include India, so local numbers are unknown.
• Registry participation underpins any local planning.

Why it matters

It frames revision work as a growing workload that training and infection-control programmes need to anticipate.

Don't overread it

A model-based projection to 2060 depends on assumptions that may not hold and does not cover India.

The statistics, in plain English

A projection extends past trends forward. The authors capped and damped trends and ran three alternative models to bracket the uncertainty, and the spread between about 461,000 and 511,000 is the range of what the models allow, not a confidence interval.

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