- Design
- Retrospective claims-database cohort
- Population
- 83,305 US patients newly diagnosed as open-angle glaucoma suspects
- Primary outcome
- Diagnostic conversion to primary open-angle glaucoma
- Effect
- Annual conversion 9.4% in year 1, 5.3% in years 2 to 5; 2.0% to 16.7% by risk group
A US claims database study, published in June, followed 83,305 newly diagnosed open-angle glaucoma suspects for five years. 20.6% converted to glaucoma: 9.4% in the first year and 5.3% a year thereafter.
Older age, male sex, Black race, gonioscopy on record and treatment as a suspect were each associated with conversion. Untreated patients under 50 converted at 2.0% a year; treated patients over 70 at 16.7%. Using a 5% per-visit threshold, the authors suggest intervals of about six years for the lowest-risk group and about seven months for the highest.
This supports tailoring follow-up rather than seeing every suspect annually. In India, where clinic capacity is stretched, risk-stratified intervals could free appointments for those most likely to convert.
- Record age, treatment status and risk factors at the first suspect visit.
- See higher-risk suspects — older, treated — at shorter intervals.
- Consider longer intervals for young, untreated, low-risk suspects with stable OCT.
- Keep the first year closer, when conversion is highest.
Why it matters
It gives a basis for stretching follow-up in low-risk suspects without missing conversion in high-risk ones.
Don't overread it
Conversion here is a coded diagnosis in claims data, not a verified field or OCT change.
The statistics, in plain English
Hazard ratios above 1 mean faster conversion. The six-year interval for the lowest-risk group is a modelled figure; most clinicians would not wait that long without a structural baseline.
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